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Prop 10 allows broad rent control again

Published on 10/12/18, 10:00 AM

Does it help or hurt to expand rent control?

What's the dealio?

Prop 10 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act, a state law passed in 1995 that limits how cities can regulate rent on housing built after that year. In addition, it explicitly said that landlords could reset rents to market rate after a tenant moved out, ending the practice of "vacancy control." Fifteen cities, like LA, SF, Oakland, and San Jose, already had local rent control laws in 1995, but Costa-Hawkins prevented them from regulating rents on any buildings after that.. (Cities can implement rent control today under Costa-Hawkins, but only on buildings built before 1995. Three Bay Area cities did so in 2016.)

By repealing Costa-Hawkins, Prop 10 would give cities the authority to implement local rent control on buildings built after 1995 and single-family homes, and also allow vacancy control. If and how a city implements specific policy would be up to each individual city.
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Isn’t rent control a good thing?

It's complicated. Prop 10 critics say rent control is problematic for CA’s housing shortage because:
  • It often isn't "means-tested". Residents who live in rent controlled apartments aren’t necessarily the people who need it the most.
  • It causes displacement and gentrification as some landlords try to convert their units to more profitable real estate.
  • It discourages real estate developers from building rental units because it affects their profit margins.
Economists generally agree that price ceilings on rental prices would lead to less available housing. The Legislative Analyst's Office estimates that renters would move less often, property values would decrease because landlords would earn less, and local governments would receive less money.

Fine. Rent control is the devil.

Not so fast, fella. We all know it's expensive to rent in California. Renters typically pay 50% more for housing than renters in other states, and sometimes double. Rent control helps reduce displacement for people living in increasingly expensive cities, the benefits of which are immeasurable. Prop 10 supporters argue the lack of affordable housing has led to more homelessness across the state. One study found that rent control in the Bay Area helped increase housing production, contrary to what economists might predict.

Supporters also argue Prop 10 would give control back to cities. Local governments are the best advocates for their residents, and passing Prop 10 would give cities an additional tool to help address their specific housing needs, particularly in the short-term.

Hasn't somebody researched this by now?

Yes, but there's a lot. Rent control is both gnarly and well-studied. We've attempted to summarize many of the studies cited by proponents and opponents; we encourage you to dig deeper and read the actual papers.

The impact of rent regulations, USC, meta-analysis (2018)

This meta-analysis tries to address common questions about rent regulation by looking at the current literature. (Spoiler: it's nuanced.) It also discusses the intangible benefits of housing stability.

Does rent control increase rent on units that aren't rent-controlled? It appears not, but SF might have been an exception. The paper suggests that surrounding units' rental prices stay the same or are lower as a result of nearby rent controlled units.

More questions they tried to answer

Stanford study on SF rent control (2018)

Researchers took advantage of a unique "quasi-experimental" situation where in 1994, rent control in SF was suddenly applied to small multifamily homes (SMFH) built before 1980. The researchers compared those SMFHs to SMFHs built after 1980 (not rent controlled) and studied how renters and landlords behaved after 1994.

What they found

Haas Institute, UC Berkeley, Policy/Research Brief (2018)

This policy brief describes how rent control would help the dire housing situation for California renters. Stagnating wages and an overheated rental market has led to a situation where government needs to step in. Rent control would reduce displacement, particularly for low-income families, people with disabilities, and people of color.

Perhaps the most surprising argument is that rent control has lead to increased housing production, citing the Bay Area and LA.

More conclusions

Hey make sure to vote Yes on 10. It'd nice to live in a rent controlled apartment.
It's not all peachy 🍑 If we were rent controlled, Frank probably wouldn't have fixed the building's washer.
I've been reading. Pretty much all economists agree rent control is bad.
What have you been reading?
Ballot.fyi
🙄
Then you should know economists are talking about rent ceilings and how rent control limits how much a landlord can charge.
On the other hand, rent control reduces displacement, especially for poor people and people of color.
But that's not going to solve CA's housing shortage.
We need to build more homes. It's a supply problem, and passing Prop 10 would restrict our housing supply.
Sure, we need to build more, but it'll take decades to build enough housing for everyone. Cities need ways to help renters now, not 20 years from now.
And it's not totally clear whether rent control stifles housing supply.
Of course it does. People stay in rent-controlled apartments longer.
It depends how many landlords convert their apartments to condos, but there's a study that claims it doesn't affect housing production.
And isn't it a good thing to help tenants afford their apartment? If people live near their work, there's less commuting, less traffic, cleaner air. That's ultimately how people don't end up on the streets.
Sure, that's great if it doesn't do more harm than good.
Any rich techie could land a rent controlled apt. They're not reserved for the poor.
If we made rent control for low-income people only, landlords would discriminate against them. They'd never get an apt.
It doesn't make sense for landlords to bear the burden of all our housing issues.
Rent control not only reduces landlords' revenue, but it reduces their property values too.
When Cambridge, MA removed rent control, even non rent controlled buildings shot up in value.
That's because Cambridge got gentrified.
A study of 74 cities that had rent control in NJ found no evidence that regulation affected property values. Another study found that Bay Area cities with rent control had increased housing production.
Another study found that apartments in SF were converted to condos. Again, reducing supply of rentals.
This could be prevented with the right policies.
Prop 10 gives cities the option to implement rent control on new buildings. It doesn't say if or how it'd be done.
Right, and Prop 10 would increase construction costs.
That could also be prevented if cities don't apply rent control to newer housing development until a certain age.
And do you trust cities will pass good housing policy? I don't.
We don't have much of a choice. CA's housing situation is dire and cities need more options.

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